One of the most intense El Niños ever observed could be forming

A fast-forming and strengthening El Niño climate pattern could peak this winter as one of the most intense ever observed, according to an experimental forecast released Tuesday. The new prediction system suggested it could reach top-tier “super” El Niño strength, a level that in the past has unleashed deadly fires, drought, heat waves, floods and mudslides around the world.

This time, El Niño is developing alongside an unprecedented surge in global temperatures that scientists say has increased the likelihood of brutal heat waves and deadly floods of the kind seen in recent weeks.

Will that make El Niño’s typical extremes even more dramatic in the winter?

“My answer would be — maybe,” said David DeWitt, director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

Whether — and where — this El Niño might produce new weather extremes is difficult to pin down months in advance, scientists said. That’s because research has not clarified any link between human-caused planetary warming and El Niño, or its counterpart, La Niña. Variation among El Niño events also makes weather impacts difficult to predict.

There are signs that rising temperatures could increase El Niño’s capacity to trigger heavy rainfall in some parts of the globe, though, said Yuko Okumura, a research scientist at the University of Texas.

“It’s likely the impact might be stronger,” Okumura said.